US President Donald Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s much anticipated meeting at the White House in Washington DC last week did not disappoint. It has been described by analysts as a “masterclass” for other leaders as the world adjusts to the new geopolitical realities of a second Trump term.
The Joint Statement they issued was very comprehensive with many positives for India to unpack across trade, energy, security, and defence. Analysed below in brief are the most critical points Trump and Modi discussed and their wide-ranging implications for bilateral ties and beyond.
New Bilateral Trade Agreement
India is reportedly on the top of the list for incoming tariffs; however, this could potentially be resolved by the introduction of a new Bilateral Trade Agreement by autumn 2025, announced in section 11 of the post meeting Modi-Trump Joint Statement. Trump announced the imposition of reciprocal tariffs on trade with all countries that impose tariffs on US exports, ahead of the meeting with Modi.
For Modi, it is not worth risking a potential trade war with America at a time that the Indian economy is slowing down, from a projected 7 per cent GDP growth to 6 per cent or thereabouts.
‘Mission 500’ – doubling trade by 2030, and tariffs downplayed?
Trump’s bark is often worse than his bite on the tariff issue – he is happy to remove prospective tariffs as long as trade partners cooperate with his economic agenda of creating jobs for American workers. In India’s case, this could mean lowering its own tariffs on American motorcycle and vehicle exports in exchange for avoiding tariffs.
Regardless of what happens on the tariff front, India’s high economic priority to Trump was demonstrated with the announcement of ‘Mission 500’ – an ambitious target to increase bilateral trade to $500bn by 2030.
Streamlining Immigration
There was a joint commitment to streamlining legal migration, although India may have to adopt a wait-and-see approach on the issue of how many students and professionals will be allowed access to the US in future.
Immigration is a sensitive issue for both Modi and Trump. India relied heavily on remittances from immigrants of some $125bn in 2023. The challenge for India is that Trump’s voter base is vehemently anti-immigration, seeing it as taking jobs away from US workers. Convincing Trump to continue to allow skilled Indian immigration to America via the HB1 visa route, against the wishes of his core voters may prove difficult in the long run.
Notably, no new restrictions on immigration were actually announced. Trump and Modi announced the expansion of joint degrees, the expansion of offshore campuses and Centres of Excellence, all of which will benefit Indian students.
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Regional issues
The Delhi-Washington relationship was strained under former president Joe Biden, who was very friendly to the new regime in Bangladesh. This led to tensions with India due to the longstanding issues of human rights abuses against the Hindu minority in Bangladesh under the new regime. Biden is suspected by some Indians of abetting the regime change that threw longstanding India ally Sheikh Hasina out of power.
Trump, by contrast, insisted that the US had nothing to do with the turmoil in Bangladesh, even going as far as to say “I’ll leave Bangladesh to PM Modi” to deal with. That suggests a position of greater support for Indian security and human rights concerns in Bangladesh compared with Biden.
Joint action against terrorism
Trump has selected Hindu Americans Tulsi Gabbard and Kash Patel to two of his most powerful positions, Director of National Intelligence (DNI) and FBI Director respectively, which may mean more cooperation with India in crucial fields such as counter-terrorism and counter-narcotics.
Indeed, one of Modi’s first meetings was with the newly confirmed DNI Tulsi Gabbard. While the exact contents of their conversation were not explicitly listed, the Indian MEA said that their talks centred on counter-terrorism, cybersecurity, and emerging threats.
This focus on countering terrorism was made even more clear as Trump announced the extradition of Tahawwur Rana, a convict in the Mumbai 2008 terrorist attacks case, to India after 16 years. Notably, both countries also explicitly condemned Pakistan for failing to act against extremist networks.
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Framework for defence partnership
The defence partnership with India was taken up a level, with Trump opening the door for India to purchase the futuristic F-35 stealth fighter jet in future. India is currently struggling to maintain its airpower, with just 30 squadrons of fighter jets operational against a targeted 42 squadrons in its Air Force – an alarming situation as rival China races ahead to operate hundreds of advanced stealth fighters. Trump’s F-35 nudge may open the door to a solution for India’s airpower challenges. Impressively, negotiations were also announced for a Reciprocal Defence Procurement Agreement, that in simple terms means that America will buy Indian weapons in future. This will boost Indian industry and job creation.
Overall, this enhanced US-India defence partnership will unnerve China. Beijing will further be on edge with Trump investing political capital in the Quad – made up of India, the US, Australia, and Japan. Modi is slated to host the next Quad leaders summit later this year, with a robust focus on a free and open Indo-Pacific region – a veiled reference to countering perceived Chinese expansionism.
Energy Security Partnership
Energy hungry India may also finally have an avenue to access advanced American civil nuclear technology, with Modi pledging to drop the liability clause that prevented US companies from taking full advantage of the India-US nuclear deal.
The US can now look to start building nuclear reactors in India, a longstanding demand of American industry. This may also go some way toward mollifying Trump so that he does not become tempted to impose tariffs on India after autumn 2025. Section 14 of the Joint Statement commits both countries to enhancing energy cooperation.
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While President Trump tends to blow hot and cold on many issues, a constant in his policies over the years has been a robust support for India. This latest Trump-Modi meeting has led to potentially transformational outcomes in the fields of trade, energy, security, and defence as America’s transactional President pushes for greater access to the Indian market. The meeting indeed had better than expected outcomes, with the feared tariffs being downplayed for now.
Modi would have returned to India satisfied that he got some good deals with a changeable and temperamental dealmaker-in-chief!
Jeevan Vipinachandran is a UK-based writer and political analyst specialising in political conflict and counter-terrorism. With a Masters in Comparative Politics: Conflict Studies from the London School of Economics (LSE), his core interest is in international relations with a special focus on the rise of India and its impact on the world stage.
*Info: India-US Joint Statement