The year 2024 will be a mega election year globally with over 60 countries holding local or national polls. From the United Kingdom and India to the United States, many great democratic nations go to the polls this year.
This series of elections spotlights the importance of voting, especially at a time when liberal democratic norms are under increasing threat globally from autocratic states that do not give their people free speech or political choice. Registering to vote in time and exercising the electoral franchise can make all the difference, irrespective of one’s political perspectives. Every vote matters.
Britain
As home to 1.8 million people of Indian origin, the UK is an important country to watch this year. It will hold local elections for councillors, police and crime commissioners, and mayors on May 2. While the date of the British General Election for Parliament is yet to be announced, it looks likely to be held later this year.
The national opinion polls are not encouraging for the ruling Conservative Party, with the incumbent Prime Minister Rishi Sunak led government trailing the Opposition Labour Party. Sunak, who is of Indian origin, is fighting to turn the tide with increasingly sceptical voters. While it is true that some factors causing these challenges are beyond his control, such as the raging war in Ukraine and growing tensions in the Middle East, many voters may feel that Brexit was pushed ahead without an apparent plan to deal with the inevitable economic pain in store. When coupled with years of political instability in Westminster, with a rapid change in Downing Street incumbents, the clammer for change is to be expected.
Irrespective of the outcome, any incoming UK government will have to deal with the most challenging economic and political circumstances in decades, with an economy in turmoil at the top of the to-do list. British Indians are increasingly seen as swing voters who are being courted by all political parties. The growing prominence of Indian origin voters is a sea change from even a few decades ago, when the political visibility of the Indian diaspora in Britain was far less.
A 2021 Carnegie Endowment report showed that British Indians are primarily animated by kitchen table issues such as the state of the economy. That is unsurprising given that 60,000 medical professionals of Indian heritage work for the NHS. Commonwealth origin citizens can register vote in British elections, so all parties will be motivated to get out the Indian diaspora vote.
India
The marathon phase-oriented election in India starts this week and will be the biggest in human history, as will be the case with each Indian election going forward given the sheer size of the country’s population. In fact, the emerging youth bulge in India’s population is at the heart of the demographic dividend which is causing business globally to make a beeline to India. The statistics are staggering.
The election will be held in seven phases between April 19 and June 1, to accommodate the approximately 986.8 million voters who are entitled to vote in India’s epic festival of democracy. The ruling BJP-led coalition headed by incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi are strong favourites to win a record-equalling third term in office on the back of robust economic growth, impressive infrastructure development and a rising international profile for India. The results will be declared on June 4.
MORE LIKE THIS…
Some critics allege a democratic backsliding and also point to rising unemployment, an uneven distribution of the proceeds of economic growth and increasing communal tensions as major negatives. However, the PM Modi-led BJP has conceded defeat in state-level elections that they have lost. The Prime Minister’s critics continue to openly attack him verbally in the media, which would obviously be impossible if there indeed was a democratic backsliding.
Meanwhile, surveys and analyses show Narendra Modi as the most popular political figure in India, easily dwarfing his political rivals. Indeed, the fate of the Opposition Congress Party, which used to dominate Indian politics, is now uncertain with the Gandhi family which heads the party unable to make headway with a new generation of more demanding voters.
However, Indian opinion polls have been off the mark in the past, famously in 2004 when incumbent PM Atal Bihari Vajpayee lost despite being favourite to win. It is a timely reminder to not get too swayed by pre-poll surveys.
MORE LIKE THIS…
United States
America, which goes to the polls on November 5, is gearing up for a rematch between incumbent Democrat President Joe Biden and former Republican leader Donald Trump – both of a combined age of 160 years. It suggests a lack of charismatic youthful candidates at a time of significant political division and economic slowdown.
Yet silver linings exist for the Indian diaspora, as evidenced by the rise of Indian origin Vivek Ramaswamy who ran an energetic campaign. He is tipped as a possible Vice-President pick for the Trump campaign. This shows growing engagement with politics on both sides of the Atlantic by diaspora communities – a welcome development that should be sustained and built upon.
The right to select national and local leaders is a relatively new political privilege that should not be ignored. Only over a century ago, representative democracy in the West was new and the people allowed to vote in elections were limited by race, class, and gender. Prior to that, government was autocratic and dominated by absolute monarchies, with freedom of speech a rare luxury.
MORE LIKE THIS…
Given the challenge to the liberal democratic system from autocratic political models championed by Russia and China, it is important not to take voting for granted, especially in 2024 which promises to be a global festival of democracy.
Jeevan Vipinachandran is a UK-based writer and political analyst specialising in political conflict and counterterrorism. With a Masters in Comparative Politics: Conflict Studies from the London School of Economics (LSE), his core interest is in international relations with a special focus on the rise of India and its impact on the world stage.
